We occasionally hear storm warnings about Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. However, for most people in the West, it is too far away to have an impact significant enough to remain at the center of our daily concerns. However, it absolutely should, since it reflects the worldwide conquest ambitions of the Chinese communist party and Xi Jinping, and that will affect us all.
Eight years ago, China lost a legal battle over its fantastical claims in the South China Sea. An international tribunal ruled that they had no basis for their claim that the whole area belonged to them. The Chinese Government has blatantly ignored that ruling, continues to occupy and fortify reefs and rocks throughout the area, and has consistently sabotaged fishing and energy developments by any of the countries surrounding the Sea. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia have challenged this Chinese aggression in different ways but the most obvious, and effectively dangerous, opposition has come from the government of the Philippines. They have physically challenged Chinese aggression with incidents ranging from responding to Chinese “Axe-wielding” threats by Chinese Coast Guard sailors when the Philippine sailors were re-supplying a stranded ship on their own territory, and the ramming of a Philippine coast guard cutter close to another shoal in Philippine territory.
One result of this Chinese aggression has been that the Philippine Government has agreed to give the United States access to some military bases on its territory in return for promised upgrades to those bases. The President, Ferdinand Marcos has already indicated that any death of a Philippine citizen in any skirmish will be “close to an act of war”, and that “America would hold the same standard.”
It’s a “Catch 22” for the United States. It cannot afford not to support its allies in the Pacific, not only from the point of view of its international credibility, but also from the point of view that such procrastination will only encourage XI Jinping to become more aggressive. Like it or not, it is in the U.S.’s interests to “stop the bully”. Failure to do so in a timely manner will only bring a military confrontation between China and the U.S. closer.
China, as I have suggested many times, is convinced that it is their right and destiny to rule the world. However, fanciful that may be, such conviction, coupled with the financial might and dictatorial dedication to do so, can only be countered by the threat of overwhelming force and conviction from the U.S. It is the only deterrent that works with bullies, as history has reminded us again and again.
The U.S. appears to be wakening up to this reality and has entered into agreements with Japan and, notably in recent months, by entering into the AUKUS agreement with Australia and the U.K. to supply nuclear submarines to the Australian Navy – the Australian mainland, if you look closely at the map, is at the bottom of the South China Sea and therefore eventually vulnerable to Chinese territorial ambitions. It will take careful, decisive, and consistent, reactions and policies from all concerned to keep the Chinese threat at bay. Xi Jinping is there for life, and he very obviously wants his legacy to include dominance and conquest of the South China Sea including Taiwan. Beyond that his ambition is anyone’s guess but all indications, just like with Vladimir Putin, are that he won’t stop there.
The South China Sea, just like Ukraine, are possibly the two main pivotal points of our generation in the fight for democracy over totalitarianism on the world stage. The U.S. needs all the allies it can muster to defend against such movements and attacks, and that involves undisputed and consistent support. Not that that means agreeing to everything those allies do but, in terms of overall terms, unquestionable alliances are essential.
