American democracy’s stress test. American democracy is about to undergo a serious stress test, according to a former journalist who lived through the slow and steady decline of democracy in Turkey that heralded to rise to power of autocrat, and now President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Asli Aydintasbas now works for the Brookings Institute in Washington, and his perspective on what Donald Trump can and probably cannot do as a potential dictator is illuminating and, perhaps, a little reassuring. He writes that, “President-elect Donald Trump’s return to power is unnerving, but America will not turn into a dictatorship overnight, or in four years”.
The main contention of his argument is that Donald Trump will almost certainly overplay his hand and this, inevitability, given his ego and his revenge-mentality, offers an opportunity to Democrats and Trump critics to not only survive the next four years but to come out stronger. As I said, Aydintasbas’ perspective is, at least, a little reassuring!
Aydintasbas offers six strategies for combatting Trump’s dictatorial intentions. Intentions, which he has made blatantly obvious, even though the myopic media still seem to think he won’t really try. I have to ask, how many times does he have to say what his intentions are before the media, the democrats and the general public wake up to the fact that he is telling the truth…for once in his political career? Wake up people, he really does mean them!
“DON’T PANIC” is the first strategy. Aydibtasbas says it took Erdoğan well over a decade to consolidate his dictatorial rule. It took Hungary’s Orbán and Poland’s Law and Justice Party years to erode democratic norms and fortify their grip on state institutions. In Trump’s case he faces a far greater force of elements that will slow him down, if not thwart him altogether. For example, federal judges (appointed for life), local and state governments, and legal battles, congressional pushback, and many other elements of the U.S. de-centralized system will be extremely difficult for Trump to manipulate/intimidate/eliminate.
I should add here that the U.S. Civil Service are past masters at quietly stopping anything they don’t like from the heads of their agencies. No agency head can implement change on her/his own. They need their civil servants, even though they may not think they don’t. They certainly can’t fire everyone, although Trump has threatened to do that with the U.S. Department of Education and the Justice Department, even the FBI.
DON’T DISENGAGE – STAY CONNECTED is the second strategy. It may be difficult initially to stay engaged after a major defeat. The tendency is to spend too much time on recriminations, travel, meditation, and other distractions. However, the best strategy is to return to the fight, analyze and organize. Aydintasbas cites the fact that anti-autocratic forces in Turkey and Poland have followed this path, eventually, and it is paying off. In the case of Trump’s dictatorship, I would suggest it can happen much quicker. Unless he manages to abandon elections altogether, which he might try, he faces congressional elections in two years, and that is enough time for him to have “hung” himself with the reality of what he has tried to do.
DON’T FEAR INFIGHTING is the third strategy. Although infighting, and resulting recriminations are inevitable, they are also necessary in order for the democrats to reformulate themselves. In the case of Erdoğan and Orban they convinced the electorate that they were the agents of change, and were protecting the public’s interests, versus the policies instead of the “Democratic elites”. Trump has successfully done the same thing. The Democratic Party needs to redefine itself as the real representative of the country’s working people, and there is time to do that before the congressional elections in 2026. I would add that they also need to go in the offensive much more aggressively to show that Trump’s only motivation and goals are self-promotion, self-gain, and revenge on everyone who has opposed him, in any way in the past.
CHARISMATIC LEADERSHIP IS A NON-NEGOTIABLE is the fourth strategy. You need charisma to mobilize social dissent. Coalition building and economic messaging are necessary, but they are not enough. Voters need authenticity and a connection – give it to them. Aydintasbas suggests that in a country of 350 million people it shouldn’t be too hard to find such a person who can lead the new Democratic Party order.
SKIP THE PROTESTS AND IDENTITY POLITICS is the fifth strategy. The Democratic Party should ignore the traditional way of reacting to what they don’t like. People, in general, don’t like street protests, and they don’t understand appeals to philosophical themes, like defending democracy. The new Democratic Party must broaden its base and have clear economic policies if it to succeed in 2026. I would add that the chaotic start of the new Trump administration with his appointment of totally-incompetent, and even dangerous, candidates for his cabinet have not only indicated a seemingly self-destructive approach, but have opened an opportunity for the democrats to begin their process of reform.
HAVE HOPE is the sixth strategy. Aydintasbas suggests that nothing lasts forever and the U.S. is not the only part of the world that currently faces threats to democracy – the appeal of the far right seems to be growing in many places. Trump’s return to power certainly challenges U.S. democracy. However, he will inevitably make mistakes, and he will certainly overplay his hand at home and abroad. America will survive the next four years, although it will be painful.
Aydintasbas’ final comment states that “in a country with a strong, decentralized system of government, and with a long-standing tradition of free speech, the rule of law should be far more resilient than anywhere else in the world”.
Although I have always thought that “hope” was a naïve strategy, Aydintasbas’ article gives a perspective on the current state of U.S. politics that is interesting…and, if I may say so, hopeful!!!!
