Kiwis and AUKUS has been a work in progress for several years, with the New Zealand government a somewhat reluctant bride of the AUKUS agreement. The marriage was finally consummated recently when the Aotearoa, a New Zealand Navy warship, sailed through the Taiwan Straits alongside an Australian Navy destroyer. This was a part of the on-going message being sent to Beijing by AUKUS members that they are an active supporter of Taiwan and an active opponent of China’s South China Sea policy – namely, it is China’s domain and therefore a domestic affair of Beijing and everyone else should shut-up and keep out; the U.K. and the U.S. have previously sent aircraft carriers through the Straits, and Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. regularly send other warships through there as well.
AUKUS is an agreement signed between the U.S., Canada, the U.K. and Australia to provide Australia with British-built, and U.S. supported, nuclear submarines as a deterrent to China’s South China Sea ambitions – it is worth noting that, if you look at the map, the bottom end of the South China Sea can be interpreted as reaching the north coast of Australia!
Christopher Luxon, the New Zealand Prime Minister (pictured above), has stated that, as a small trading nation, New Zealand depends on freedom of navigation and all countries, including China, need to adhere to international law. This is a major change in New Zealand’s policy, which has traditionally avoided negative commentary on China’s ambitions in the region, driven by the fact that China takes 27% of New Zealand exports. The new policy includes a push to diversify New Zealand’s diplomatic and trade relationships away from China, bring New Zealand closer to the AUKUS members by sharing intelligence and, now, participating in active confrontations with China by sending its warship through the Taiwan Straits with other AUKUS ships.
New Zealand and the U.S. are not currently allies, as a result of an argument in 1986 over U.S. nuclear submarines entering New Zealand ports. Since that time New Zealand has forged agreements with other Pacific nations and, most notably, with China – China responded by lifting tariffs of 98% of New Zealand exports. However, the relationship with China has soured as a result of New Zealand intelligence-agency warnings of Chinese interference in the country’s politics. It seems as though Mr. Luxon’s plans are to move the country further away from Chinese influence and more towards to the AUKUS and many of the Pacific nations positions of thwarting China’s more-and-more obvious intentions of trying to subvert the entire region to Chinese control.
Ten months into office, Mr. Luxon has already visited the U.S., Japan, South Korea and half the countries of South-East Asia – the U.K. and Canada can’t be far behind in this international travel initiative – perhaps the fact that Mr. Luxon spent seven years as head of Air New Zealand has something to do with this schedule!
New Zealand’s increased participation in the strategy fight against China empire-building ambitions is obviously welcome by all AUKUS members, and by many of the Pacific-Island nations, but there is a potential spanner/wrench in the works, and that is Donald Trump.
Trump’s adoration of dictators and strongmen, and his obvious ambitions of joining them, could result in his cancellation of the U.S. participation in AUKUS. That would not be fatal to the agreement, but America’s “withdrawal” from “facing down” China most certainly would unleash China’s ambitions on Taiwan, the South China Sea and beyond.
I have said before that Trump can be so easily manipulated – you only have to offer him praise and/or money, that Xi must be chuckling in his sleep at how much closer his ambitions and, in the mind of many Chinese, the Chinese destiny of world control, have become now that Trump will return to the White House.
My paranoia, certainly, but, to repeat myself yet again, “just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you”. In the case of China, and indeed, Russia, that’s all too true.
