I have a suggestion for a Ukraine strategy that might achieve the goals of Ukraine itself while, at the same time, those of the Western alliance that currently supports it. In principle, it would not cost any up-front money, although it would involve an on-going commitment of the whole Western alliance for the future. The positive side of that commitment would be a more secure European world, backed up by overwhelming force.
Putin is an arrogant bully, who should be treated like all bullies should be treated; that is, by an overwhelming deterrent to his ambitions.
My proposed strategy is simple, and twofold.
First, confirm Sweden’s membership of NATO with no delay whatsoever. Erdogan in Turkey has now been successfully bought off, so there appears to be no reason not to expedite Sweden’s membership immediately. That should secure northern Europe against Russian aggression, particularly in the very vulnerable Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, not to mention Finland and Poland. It will also send an unequivocal message to Putin to back off, and stay backed off.
Second, speed-up, very publicly, the membership application of Ukraine to join NATO. I fully realize that the cry will be, “They are not ready. They need to clean up their act first in terms of corruption and democratic institutions”. However, sometimes the greater good, and the urgency of the process’s use as a deterrent to Russia’s aggression, should take precedence over such concerns, important though they may be. Ukraine’s membership would entitle them to the protection of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, “An attack on one is an attack on all”. That Article could not be invoked immediately, given current Russian occupation of parts of Ukraine. However, it could be used as a very potent threat. “Putin, you have a month to withdraw all Russian troops and military equipment from the sovereign state of Ukraine before we invoke Article 5. That month timetable starts on XX/XX/XXXX”. In other words, treat Putin like the arrogant bully he is. The strategy would also buttress Europe against any successor to Putin, who might just be worse.
A bold, twofold, step like this would also have additional knock-on effects. It would bolster European commitment to the support of Ukraine at a time when it is weakening because of the time and money it has taken so far. It would send a strong message to China on the consequences of attacking Taiwan. Finally, it would completely stymie any attempt by a future US President, namely, Donald Trump, to cozy-up to his friend and idol, Vladimir Putin: Putin’s current strategy appears to be to hold out until Trump once again becomes President of the United States, and he can exercise his control over Trump once again.
Yes, this strategy has its risks, but we elect senior politicians to make the hard decisions. Anyone can make the easy ones.
Yes, it is somewhat of a gamble, but a gamble with a loaded shotgun behind it. Bullies are generally cowards at heart and, in the face of overwhelming strength, will almost always buckle. There’s no principle to break down here with Putin, it’s only arrogance, and that’s much easier to defeat.
The time to act on such a strategy is now. Political election games in the US next year, weakening resolve in Europe, let alone the distraction of the Israel/Palestine conflict, will all contribute to a lessening of cohesive reaction to Putin’s aggression.
I thought it was interesting to read this week about the border crisis in Northern Finland. There has been a sudden influx of “refugees” to the point where Finland has closed all border crossings. It smells to me like a Russian attempt to infiltrate Russians into Finland so that they can later claim they are defending Russians by invading Finland. That’s what they did in eastern Ukraine so why not use the same strategy in Finland. Fortunately, Finland seems a great deal more aware of this possibility than most people, so they closed the border. However, it just reinforces the devious nature of Putin’s ambitions, and the need to be constantly vigilant, and pro-active against him.
