OUT ON A LIMB

This blog is definitely going “out on a limb”. It’s an opinion piece based on two things; my conviction that the reporting of the U.S. Presidential election is so flawed as to be worthless and the fact that the history of the American people is that they come through sensibly, albeit usually at the last minute, in any major political crisis situation. My conclusion from these two considerations is that Kamala Harris may well win in a landslide.

      Of course, I can be accused of wishful thinking, naivete, stupidity, ignorance, and probably many other things but, sometimes, you have to go with your gut. My gut tells me she will win decisively.

      Let’s start with the reporting. Most pundits constantly refer to one poll or another as the basis for their analysis. As a former professor and teacher of statistics, I have always known that “lying with statistics” is a common, and easy, facet of the discipline. You can manipulate the numbers virtually any way you want to produce the results you desire, and the only restriction is your own sense of integrity. It is also very easy to convince yourself that you have eliminated any bias from your numbers, when we all intrinsically know that’s impossible.

      Added to those basic facts, is the current admissions by most pollsters themselves that their sample base is miniscule – way under 5% in most cases. I even listened to one “expert” last week who was basing his conclusions about a national election on ten people…TEN PEOPLE!! I should have been fired as a teacher of statistics, with good reason, if I had even thought of designing and implementing such a useless survey.

      There is also the fact that most people are so fed-up with pollsters that they either refuse to answer or just make up something just to screw with the caller. Either response is hardly a basis of any results. Also, the statistical framework that most pollsters use hasn’t changed for years. Even they admit that the current situation calls into question the framework of surveys, and they also admit they are not sure such questionability might affect results. Basically, they are implying it is anyone’s guess, while they continue to push their results as “the truth”.

      The other factor I have taken into consideration in this piece is the sensibility of the American people. I am not talking about Trump’s 35% solid base, who will follow him to gates of hell, and through them, regardless of what he says or does. In terms of the current election, they can be ignored because they are one of the few totally predictable groups. I am talking about the middle-of-the-road Republicans and Democrats, many of whom are sitting on the fence or, more likely, are so fed up with all the media noise (me included) that they haven’t given much thought about the whole circus until recently, with the actual election looming.

      Historically and traditionally, the American people have become more sensible when radical politicians have tried to pish through ideas that are against their sense of right and wrong, particularly with regards to American democracy.

      Donald Trump’s idolization of Vladimir Putin as a role model for his next administration has to resonate negatively with any sensible American. His obvious, though largely unreported, senility and constant lying also has to register with all political persuasions. His vice-presidential nominee’s statement to a CBS interview that he will say whatever it takes to support his position, regardless of whether it is true or not, is the biggest unabashed, publicly-stated, condemnation of a political platform I have ever heard. (Trump did not deny that he uses the same tactic).

      This week, the Republican guardian of all truths, Majorie Taylor Greene, stated publicly that Democrats control the weather and are using it (the hurricane in Florida) to deny Republicans access to vote. How can any sensible American let such deranged lunatics anywhere near the seat of power in this country? I have to believe the vast majority of the American people are brighter than that.

      If you put all that together, then my gut feelings are at least as good as any other measure out there of what will happen on November 5^th.

      My hope, nay, my “out on a limb” conviction, is that the American people will wake up in the next four weeks, and elect Kamala Harris in a landslide, condemning Trump and his followers to the dustbin of history.